| Day One: The Fundamentals |
- Introduction: What is Litigation Risk Analysis and why is it necessary? Participate in group demonstrations of why the approach currently used by most attorneys to value lawsuits can produce bad results
- Capturing the Key Uncertainties in Your Case:
How do you sort out all issues — pretrial and trial, legal and factual, liability and damages, judge and jury? Learn about dependency diagrams to better identify the key issues in a lawsuit, their interrelationships and their consequences; then learn how to convert them to decision trees to facilitate a better quantitative valuation of the suit.
- Quantifying Your Subjective Opinions:
What hidden "anchors" distort every lawyer's judgment? Learn how to assess more realistic probabilities of success in front of judge or jury and more realistic verdict ranges.
- Solving for the Value of Your Case:
How should you combine your various assessments on all the liability and damages issues to arrive at a fair
settlement value for your case? We will discuss the underlying arithmetic concepts, see how to
calculate the expected value and generate a bar chart. We will also discuss the impact of
litigation costs and the client's willingness to take risk on your settlement strategy.
- Refining Your Pretrial and Trial Strategy: If your case is not about to settle, what
would be the most cost-effective way to spend your time and money? See how sensitivity analyses are performed and how
they provide a rational "cost-benefit" approach for deciding where to allocate your pretrial dollars and which trial
strategies to pursue.
Note: Each of the above sessions will consist of lecture, then hands-on workshop and group discussion.
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Day Two: Using the Software [Note: see Prerequisites below]
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- Building a Dependency/Influence Diagram
… that captures the issues, their interrelationships and their consequences.
- Building a Decision Tree
… that captures the substance of your dependency/influence diagram — and is technically sound.
- Assessing Realistic Probabilities and Verdict Ranges
… using node comments (i.e., lists of reasons) and the probability wheel.
- Creating and Defining Verdict Variables and Formulas
… permitting TreeAge Pro to calculate for you the total verdict for every scenario.
- Generating the Expected Value and the Litigation Bar Chart
… showing the full range of potential outcomes and their corresponding probabilities of occurring, as well as the mean value of the distribution.
- Creating Probability Variables and Generating Sensitivity Analysis Graphs
… allowing you to see the impact on case value of improving your probabilities of good results on the various issues.
- Working with Clones
… so large trees can be constructed, solved, and modified more rapidly.
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| Prerequisites for Day Two |
- An understanding of the material covered on Day One.
- A copy of the latest version of TreeAge Pro running on a laptop. A complimentary 21-day Trial version of TreeAge Pro can be
downloaded from our website if you do not already have a license.
Please click here to download a Trial version of TreeAge Pro
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